Live temperature forecasts for every Kalshi weather market we cover, and the full
timestamped record of how each one turned out. Every forecast is written to our
database before settlement and scored on the first call of the day —
never revised after the fact.
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Mean abs error
–
first forecast of day vs settled °F
Within ±1°F
–
of the actual settlement
Days scored
–
settled city-days, last 21 days
Model vs market
–
Brier score, lower is better
Forecast ledgerevery city-day: when we called it, what we called, what settled
Date
City
Type
Predicted at (UTC)
Forecast °F
Final °F
Actual °F
Error °F
σ °F
Kalshi prob
Status
Margin of error by climate regimelows and highs scored separately — they fail differently
Region
Days
Avg error °F
Low error
High error
Within ±1°F
Worst miss
Accuracy by stationmean absolute ex-ante error, settled days