What gets checked before a Kalshi weather contract: the Alpha forecast, the other
sources beside it, how far they disagree, and the Kalshi price when that price is in
the feed. This is an evaluation view. It does not place orders.
Public call-sheet recommendations (model calls only, no live trading):
Open Call Sheet
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Mean abs error
–
first forecast of day vs settled °F
Within ±1°F
–
of the actual settlement
Days scored
–
settled city-days, last 21 days
Model vs market
–
Brier score, lower is better
Disagreement deskmodel vs Kalshi — why we diverged
Date
City
Type
Forecast °F
σ
Kalshi avg %
Implied gap
Status
Reason
Forecast ledgerevery city-day: when we called it, what we called, what settled
Date
City
Type
Predicted at (UTC)
Forecast °F
Final °F
Actual °F
Error °F
σ °F
Kalshi prob
Status
Margin of error by climate regimelows and highs scored separately — they fail differently
Region
Days
Avg error °F
Low error
High error
Within ±1°F
Worst miss
Accuracy by stationmean absolute ex-ante error, settled days